Auf wiedersehen, au revoir and all that jazz

This is my last post on blogspot. Henceforth, I write at 
http://shaunak.wordpress.com
Reasons for ditching blogspot in favour of wordpress -

• Better UI
  
• Better URL
• Cleaner pages
• Doesn't belong to Google
• Is licenced under the creative commons licence
• Doesn't self-destruct under Opera

So please update your bookmarks and RSS feeds.

Regards,
Shaunak

Random musings on Iran

Iran - military possibilities

Neither side appears willing to back down. The Iranians have rejected Europe's offer to build heavywater reactors for free. They're unwilling to give up their enrichment plans. Which seems to indicate that they're dying to get the Bomb. Various informed sources put them at between 1 year and 10 years away from their first nuke. So much for informed sources!

The pro-Israel lobby and the republicans in the US wouldn't like to see that (Iran getting the bomb) because it threatens Israel, Saudi Arabia (and other Arab allies of the US) and Iraq (the Iranians don't hold the Arabs in much esteem and the feeling's reciprocated - the Iranians and the Arabs have a history of strife and estrangement).

Additionally, Iran can disrupt shipping through the Straits of Hormuz and can thus screw badly with the world's crude oil supply and economy (The Iranian Navy is reported to have procured thousands of Sunburn Anti-Ship missiles and have threatened to use them against commercial shipping in the straits in case of war with the US). A belligerant Iran with nukes would definitely send oil above $100 and probably over $150.

Even if they don't actually use the nukes against Israel, the very fact that they'll have achieved nuke parity with Israel will mean that the Hezbollah and others (which have deep links with Iran) will be unleashed and will mean more irritation and deaths for Israel.

So assuming that a confrontation is certain, let us examine the strategical and tactical issues facing the US of A and Israel.

Allow me to begin by pointing out that Iran has US bases to the North (Turkey and the many stans), South (Saudi Arabia, Oman), East (Afghanistan, Pakistan) and West (Iraq). As is clear from the accompanying photograph, Iran is pretty much surrounded.

Also, there's almost always a CBG parked near the Straits of Hormuz. Strategically, the US is in an excellent position not only to embargo all trade to and from Iran, but also to attack them from all sides.

(In the map showed here, the blue dots represent countries with US or UK bases)



Effects on India

Polarisation along communal lines, no doubt helped by the left's and Mulayam's idiotic decision to identify Indian Muslims with the Iranians.

The economy would hit a speed breaker if oil climbs to $100 or something like that. However, since we aren't dependent to any significant extent on Iran for our energy needs, the economy should chug along at a reduced rate.

One would expect that the supply of 'trained' Jihadi types would remain the same as the demand would pick up (for immediate onsite opportunities in Iran) and many would be pulled from ongoing projects in J&K to support their Irani brethren and fight against the great Satanic Americans. But I am no expert in the demand-supply freakonomics of Jihadis, so I wouldn't bet on this.

With the US's armed forces engaged in another country in the Middle east, the Saudi Arabians would be quietly encouraged to ramp up production to offset whatever drop would happen and a couple of weeks into the war, the prices of Oil may stabilise at higher levels.

Depending on whether the Russkies have had their daily dose of Vodka on the given day, they may quietly support the US (remember, the roots of the Chechnian problem can be traced to the unofficial foreign policy pursued by Khomeini and his successors - the influx of Iranian Mullahs has contributed significantly towards the Radical-Islamisation of the various Stans and Chechnya) or they may raise a stink and get back to their drinking. If they support the US, one can expect them to ramp up oil extraction to help ease the burden on the world economy.

Furthermore, this engagement of US troops would mean that the Indian Navy would be encouraged to take up more responsibilities this side of the South China sea. One can expect the impotent terror attacks to increase all over the world, especially in mainland Europe.

The most interesting aspect to watch in India would be the reaction of the incumbent government. The govt. will be torn between the demands of the reformists (quietly support the US in order to save the various different Joint Ventures we have going with them) and those of the Commie bastards. I expect another impotent response (like during Iraq).

The Chinese reaction would be very interesting. Considering the amount of $s they're buying and holding (not to mention US Treasury bonds), they cannot afford to see the US economy fuck up badly. Neither can they afford to piss-off the US (and vice versa). It seems the Chinkis are playing both sides. The Sunburns were sold to Iran by the Chinks.

The Ancient Greeks had this phrase, "May you live in interesting times." Seeing what's going on in the middle east, one can't help but agree that we do live in interesting times.
More later.
Comments welcome.

ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ, pronounced Molon La-beh is Greek for Come and take them. These were the words uttered by Leonidas I of Sparta to Xerexes I of Persia before the Battle of Thermopylae.

When Xerxes reached Thermopylae, he sent emisaries to the Greek forces. At first he asked Leonidas to come on his side and offered him to be king of all of Greece.
Leonidas answered:

If you knew what is good in life, you would abstain from wishing for foreign things. For me it is better to die for Greece than to be monarch over my compatriots

Then Xerxes asked him more forcefully to surrender their arms.
To this Leonidas gave his very famous answer:

Μολών Λαβέ
(pronounced "Mo-lone' lah-beh' ")
which meant "Come get them".

This quote has been repeated by many later generals and even politicians in order to express the Greeks' determination to fight to the last man rather than surrender without a fight.

For the uninitiated, the Battle of Thermopylae saw a small Greek force hold off a much larger Persian force for many days. It is more famous for the final stand made by the Spartans and the Thespians.

Leonidas, realizing that further fighting would be futile, dismissed all Greek forces save the surviving Spartans and Thebans on August 11; the Spartans having pledged themselves to fight to the death, and the Thebans held as hostages as Thebes' loyalty to Greece was questioned. However, a contingent of about 700 Thespians, led by Demophilus, refused to leave with the other Greeks. Instead, they chose to stay in the sacrificial effort to delay the advance and allow the rest of the Greek army to escape.

The significance of the Thespians' refusal should not be passed over. The Spartans, brave as their sacrifice indubitably was, were professional soldiers, trained from birth to be ready to give their lives in combat as Spartan law dictated. Conversely, the Thespians were citizen-soldiers (Demophilus, for example, made his living as an architect) who elected to add whatever they could to the fight, rather than allow the Spartans to be annihilated alone. Furthermore, the Spartan royal bodyguard had to stay because of their king's order. No one forced the Thespians to do so, it was their free will.

Though their bravery is often overlooked by history, it was most certainly not overlooked by the Spartans, who are said to have exchanged cloaks with the Thespians and promised to be allies for eternity.

The fighting was said to have been extremely brutal, even for hoplite combat. As their numbers diminished the Greeks retreated to a small hill in the narrowest part of the pass. The Thebans took this opportunity to surrender to the Persians[11]. After their spears broke, the Spartans and Thespians kept fighting with their xiphos short swords, and after those broke, they were said to have fought with their bare hands, teeth and nails.

Although the Greeks killed many Persians, including two of Xerxes' brothers, Leonidas was eventually killed, but rather than surrender the Spartans fought fanatically to defend his body. To avoid losing any more men the Persians killed the last of the Spartans with flights of arrows.

"We will remember not the words of our enemies ..."

My pompousness and arrogance grows each day. So now I've written to Mr L K Advani. By the way, he can be emailed at advanilk@sansad.nic.in and I urge you to do so.

Dear Mr Advani,

Till a few days back, I was a keen supporter of your party. I cheered when Mr Vajpayee was sworn-in as the Prime Minister in 1996 and again in 1998. I cheered when he won the votes of confidence and comiserated when he lost. As is the case with most of my friends, I felt back then that for once, the party in power was working for the nation, as opposed to the others who mostly worked for re-election. I support you no more. I cheer no more. And I wouldn't give a damn if your tally in the coming general elections fell to zero and stayed there.

"In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends." - Martin Luther King Jr.

I'm sure you are aware of the idiotic and divisive decision taken by the government to introduce reservations for OBCs in higher education. Reservations are needed, but on the basis of financial background, not caste. If you have any doubts about the irrational nature of this move, please refer to the transcripts of Mr Arjun Singh's interview. There have been plenty of protests by youngsters such as myself, and
some of the more courageous ones are on hunger strike for the 9th day now. It has been more than a months since Mr Arjun Singh announced the government's decision. Ample time for analysis. And yet we have heard nothing from you regarding this topic. This in spite of the fact that yours is the main opposition party. In spite of the fact that your party has traditionally enjoyed the loyalty and votes of the upper castes. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the BJP was (and probably still is) known as
a Brahmin-Bania party! Despite the likes of the Mulayam Singh Yadavs and the Mayawatis becoming stronger, despite the congress showing its true colours, we believed that our interests would not be murdered because we had friends to look after them.

Unfortunately, our 'friends' have decided to keep mum on this matter. Slowly and surely, we're becoming second class citizens of the country with half the education opportunities, government jobs and very soon private jobs denied to us. Our culture is ridiculed. Our traditions lampooned. Our achievements belittled. Our faults spotlighted. And I'm charitable when I say 'our' faults because my generation doesn't believe in emphasizing our caste. Does the law provide for the son of a murderer to be tried and hung for the crime? Then why must we suffer and be punished for the crimes committed by a few of our ancestors? This is persecution, anologous to how the National Socialist German Workers Party began what ended as the holocaust in the 1930s and 40s. And even then, those who could have done something about it, looked on in silence. History never forgave them. And it will never forgive those who look on silently today.

Time is not yet lost. Take a stand. A righteous one.

With regards but not much respect left,
Shaunak Agarkhedkar